The diesel generator market is being pushed in different directions by a variety of conflicting drivers and global megatrends. Whilst global power demand continues to increase and expand to off grid locations, increasingly stringent environmental regulations and falling renewable/battery technology prices are leading to a changing generator set landscape. IDTechEx has been closely researching and tracking the generator sets and alternative technology markets, the findings of which are available in the IDTechEx Research report ‘Diesel Generator Set Future Developments and Alternative Technologies 2019-2029‘.
From an outside looking into the industry it would be intuitive to assume that cheaper commodity and fuel prices would drive greater use of generator sets. In reality the opposite is true, with lower commodity prices decreasing the genset market value. This is because a large portion of the global market is dependent upon sales into developing countries that often have highly commodity dependent economies.
As a result of this dependence the industrial output and as a result the demand of mobile and temporary power, is reduced during periods of lower commodity prices. The past two years has seen prices recover after several years of moving in the opposite direction and a period of relative stability is expected. In this report, we model how the global generator set will respond over the short, medium and long term.
Source: IDTechEx ResearchBeyond fuel and commodity prices there are of course several other factors at play. Lower cost renewable energy generating and storage technologies are allowing many of the traditional core industries to save money by replacing large portions of their installed diesel capacity with solar panels or other technologies. This is having the effect of changing the role of gensets from primary power to back up power or spinning reserve as part of a larger hybrid system. The threat to gensets posed by these technologies cannot be ignored and indeed many of the most forward-thinking organisations within the genset industry have responded by offering systems that are designed for ease of integration with batteries or renewable systems. IDTechEx has been tracking emerging renewable energy technologies for over 15 years and this expertise is throughout the report Diesel Generator Set Future Developments and Alternative Technologies 2019-2029 to provide insight and analysis into what can be expected from solar, wind, fuel cell, wave & tidal systems both with and without energy storage over the coming years.
Natural gas fuelled generator sets will also play a crucial role. Natural gas prices have remained relatively cheap and stable for many years, whilst it’s combustion produces less carbon, less NOx and less particulate matter than diesel. As a result, gas gensets can be a highly affordable and effective way to meet emissions regulations without compromising security of supply. The report forecasts strong growth for gas fuelled gensets over the next ten years, taking a sizeable portion of diesel’s market share whilst also limiting the extent of renewable penetration.
For more see www.IDTechEx.com/genset