The Li-ion Battery Supply Chain 2020-2030

        The expanding growth of electric vehicles is creating a huge demand for Li-ion batteries (LIBs). The demand for raw materials will therefore be hugely impacted and production in many cases will need to scale up rapidly.

        Investment in the supply chain requires clarity on the technologies and chemistries that will be used over the coming decade but there are many types of LIB chemistries in use. Furthermore, considerable investment is being poured into the research and development of the next generation of LIBs with news items on the next battery breakthrough a regular occurrence – stakeholders want clarity on the chemistries that will be used over the coming decade. IDTechEx analysts appraise the possible LIB technology developments over the next decade, including alternative anodes, high-nickel cathodes and solid-state electrolytes. An analysis of the technical challenges and market activity for these key technological developments allows a technology outlook to be mapped, evaluating the evolving shares that different LIB chemistries and technologies will hold from 2020 to 2030.

        With a technology outlook in place, future material demand can be forecasted. The need for lithium, cobalt, graphite and nickel are all set to grow. Where are these materials mined and produced, do we have enough of them, and will there be supply disruptions? These are some key questions addressed in this report. China has a strong position in various segments of the supply chain and will continue to do so. However, production capacity will grow in Europe and the US as auto manufacturers seek greater control and proximity to cell production. Both areas are also seeking to develop domestic supplies of raw materials, with a number being deemed critical and of strategic importance. IDTechEx analyses the different segments of the Li-ion supply chain, breaking down the anode, cathode, component and raw material markets and the players involved.

        Historic price reductions for LIBs have been well documented. However, the battery still accounts for a significant percentage of a battery electric vehicles (BEV) cost. To enable price parity between BEVs and internal combustion engine vehicles, further price reductions in LIBs are needed. This new report presents a LIB price forecast from 2020 to 2030 based on a detailed analysis of cell materials, their performance and the effect of increasing economies of scale.

        By 2030, there could be over 250 GWh of LIB reaching end-of-life from electric vehicles alone. These batteries cannot just be landfilled. A number of jurisdictions are imposing collection requirements for automotive LIB packs. Re-purposing used EV batteries for 2nd-use presents an appealing opportunity to extend battery life and obtain additional values. However, given the costs associated with testing and re-purposing a used battery, there may be more value in recycling. Recycling will become increasingly important as a source of raw material to mitigate supply risks. IDTechEx outlines the methods that can be used to extract usable materials and the players actively recycling LIBs.

       The forecasted growth in LIB demand makes it increasingly important to understand its supply chain. This new report provides insight on where materials come from, market players, recent investments in production and developments in the LIB technology. In addition to our 10-year demand forecasts and price analysis, the report will provide a comprehensive overview of the LIB supply chain.

The key issues addressed in this report:
• Overview and introduction to the Li-ion technology and supply chain
• How will LIB technology evolve, and which chemistries will win?
• Material and cost breakdowns
• Battery, material and price forecasts
• Is there enough raw material, can mining cope and will there be supply disruption?
• A dive into the recycling methods available for LIBs.
• Market analysis for materials, components, production and recycling.